What can—and cannot—signal a Bitcoin cycle top
No indicator can identify the final high in real time with certainty. Turnmetry model v3 separates an early peak candidate from evidence that a reversal has actually begun.
Model referenced: cycle-v3 · July 2026
The central problem: warning versus confirmation
A top indicator that reacts early will sometimes warn before further upside. A rule that waits for certainty can only confirm after price has already fallen. These are different jobs, so Turnmetry reports them as separate stages rather than compressing them into one buy-or-sell label.
The active top state machine is intentionally narrow. Broader valuation and miner data can explain market context and readiness, but they do not independently create a v3 Peak Candidate.
Peak Candidate
A new daily closing all-time high occurs with cycle-exhaustion context: either the Pi Cycle ratio is at least 0.98 or the latest halving is 500–800 days old.
Top Turn
After the candidate, price is at least 3% below the tracked high and closes below its seven-day moving average.
Top Confirmed
Price has declined at least 30% from the tracked high. This is stronger evidence, but it cannot be an exact-top prediction.
Readiness indicators
MVRV, longer-term price ratios, miner-revenue proxy and drawdown describe surrounding conditions without becoming extra v3 top votes.
Why these top indicators are used
A closing all-time high anchors the warning to an observable price event. Halving age represents cycle timing, while the Pi Cycle ratio measures whether shorter and longer price trends are converging in a historically stretched way. Neither proves demand is exhausted.
The Top Turn adds short-term reversal evidence. Tracking the highest close after the candidate allows a later high to replace the original one before drawdown is measured. The confirmation stage then asks whether the decline has become much larger than an ordinary pullback.
Useful context that is not a crystal ball
MVRV and MVRV-Z describe market value relative to realised value. The Mayer Multiple and two-year ratio describe price extension. A Puell-style metric approximates miner-revenue stress or excess. These families can all be informative, but thresholds learned from a few historical cycles can decay, and several measures ultimately depend on the same price series.
Bitcoin can set another high after a Peak Candidate, remain elevated for months, or never progress to a Top Turn. Treating every candidate as a completed top would misrepresent the model.
How to judge a top model
Evaluate the time difference and price difference from independently defined historical tops, the number of unmatched warnings, and the delay introduced by reversal and confirmation rules. Also distinguish reconstructed backtests from signals recorded live.
Turnmetry publishes those concepts in its cycle history. For implementation detail, read the methodology and version history.
See the current model state