Cycle research without manufactured certainty
Turnmetry is an independent research project that measures changing Bitcoin cycle risk. It is built to make signals inspectable, limitations visible and model changes traceable.
Last reviewed: July 12, 2026
Why Turnmetry exists
Turnmetry is created and maintained by Arjan de Vos in the Netherlands. It is an independent software and research project, not a licensed investment advisory service. Questions about the project can be sent to arjan@arjandevos.com.
Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms matter, but they are only obvious in hindsight. A useful model should therefore do more than mark the highest and lowest point on an old chart. It should process each day in sequence, use only data available at that moment and show how much confirmation was still missing.
Turnmetry turns that principle into staged signals. Early stages are designed to warn while uncertainty is high. Later stages trade speed for stronger evidence. The goal is not to promise the exact turning point; it is to describe the evidence around a possible cycle transition consistently.
Transparent rules
The active model version, signal stages and important thresholds are documented instead of hidden behind a single prediction.
Causal evaluation
Historical runs move forward one day at a time. Future prices cannot influence an earlier model decision.
Visible uncertainty
Warnings can be early, late or false. Those outcomes are part of the track record and should not be edited away.
Accessible data
The pipeline favours data that can be obtained automatically without a commercial terminal, while documenting derived and proxy metrics.
What Turnmetry is—and is not
Turnmetry is general market research and a measurement tool. It is not a trading system, portfolio manager or promise of returns. It does not know a visitor’s finances, objectives, time horizon or ability to absorb a loss.
A signal describes model conditions. It does not tell a particular person whether, when or how much to buy or sell.
How to inspect the work
Read the model methodology, check the data sources and transformations, and follow material revisions in the model changelog. The historical cycle record is intended to show timing, price distance and false positives rather than only favourable examples.
The public Bitcoin cycle status shows the model’s latest state. Verified beta users can choose which transitions may generate an email alert.
Join the beta