Bitcoin cycle signal history
A transparent retrospective check of when each v3 transition appeared, how far it was from the configured market landmark, and where the small sample can mislead.
Data 2010-07-18 through 2026-07-11 · report verified 2026-07-12
Summary by signal type
Positive timing means the event appeared before its matched landmark; negative timing means it arrived afterward. Price distance is the average absolute difference from the landmark's daily close.
| Signal | Hits | False + | Missed | Avg. timing | Avg. price distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Candidate | 6/6 | 0 | 0 | +8.7 days | 12.4% |
| Top Turn | 6/6 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 days | 5.7% |
| Bottom Watch | 4/4 | 0 | 0 | +11.5 days | 18.5% |
| Top Confirmed | 6/6 | 0 | 0 | -21.3 days | 34.7% |
| Bottom Confirmed | 4/4 | 0 | 0 | -28.0 days | 19.9% |
No replayed transition was left unmatched under the fixed ±30-day top and ±45-day bottom definitions. It does not mean future signals cannot be false, and it does not turn six top landmarks and four bottom landmarks into ten independent market cycles.
6/6 captured
The persistent top-state sequence overlapped every configured top landmark.
2/4 captured
The stricter persistent bottom state covered only half of the configured bottom landmarks, despite individual Bottom Watch events matching all four.
Peak Candidate matches
The predictive warning can lead the final high by days or weeks and may occur at a materially lower price.
| Signal date | Signal close | Landmark | Landmark close | Timing | Price Δ | |Distance| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-04 | $133.01 | 2013-04-10 | $161.19 | +6 d | -17.5% | 17.5% |
| 2013-12-04 | $1,134.93 | 2013-12-04 | $1,134.93 | +0 d | +0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-11-25 | $8,760.17 | 2017-12-17 | $19,250.47 | +22 d | -54.5% | 54.5% |
| 2021-04-13 | $63,445.64 | 2021-04-14 | $62,869.50 | +1 d | +0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2021-10-19 | $64,290.90 | 2021-11-10 | $64,756.08 | +22 d | -0.7% | 0.7% |
| 2025-10-05 | $123,523.77 | 2025-10-06 provisional | $124,824.45 | +1 d | -1.0% | 1.0% |
Top Turn matches
The faster reversal signal usually sacrifices a small amount of price to require an actual trend break.
| Signal date | Signal close | Landmark | Landmark close | Timing | Price Δ | |Distance| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-10 | $161.19 | 2013-04-10 | $161.19 | +0 d | +0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-12-05 | $1,027.41 | 2013-12-04 | $1,134.93 | -1 d | -9.5% | 9.5% |
| 2017-12-19 | $17,653.33 | 2017-12-17 | $19,250.47 | -2 d | -8.3% | 8.3% |
| 2021-04-17 | $60,280.88 | 2021-04-14 | $62,869.50 | -3 d | -4.1% | 4.1% |
| 2021-10-21 | $62,373.89 | 2021-11-10 | $64,756.08 | +20 d | -3.7% | 3.7% |
| 2025-10-10 | $113,754.85 | 2025-10-06 provisional | $124,824.45 | -4 d | -8.9% | 8.9% |
Bottom Watch matches
Bottom watches identify a zone; their price can remain well above the eventual lowest daily close.
| Signal date | Signal close | Landmark | Landmark close | Timing | Price Δ | |Distance| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-17 | $199.82 | 2015-01-14 | $175.64 | -3 d | +13.8% | 13.8% |
| 2018-12-01 | $4,148.07 | 2018-12-15 | $3,185.07 | +14 d | +30.2% | 30.2% |
| 2022-06-19 | $20,492.30 | 2022-06-18 | $19,013.87 | -1 d | +7.8% | 7.8% |
| 2022-10-16 | $19,261.75 | 2022-11-21 | $15,778.02 | +36 d | +22.1% | 22.1% |
Top Confirmed matches
Structural confirmation is deliberately retrospective and therefore appears below and after the matched top.
| Signal date | Signal close | Landmark | Landmark close | Timing | Price Δ | |Distance| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-11 | $82.90 | 2013-04-10 | $161.19 | -1 d | -48.6% | 48.6% |
| 2013-12-07 | $703.75 | 2013-12-04 | $1,134.93 | -3 d | -38.0% | 38.0% |
| 2017-12-30 | $12,948.72 | 2017-12-17 | $19,250.47 | -13 d | -32.7% | 32.7% |
| 2021-05-17 | $43,492.40 | 2021-04-14 | $62,869.50 | -33 d | -30.8% | 30.8% |
| 2021-12-13 | $46,785.33 | 2021-11-10 | $64,756.08 | -33 d | -27.8% | 27.8% |
| 2025-11-20 | $86,911.30 | 2025-10-06 provisional | $124,824.45 | -45 d | -30.4% | 30.4% |
Bottom Confirmed matches
Recovery confirmation waits for both time and rebound evidence, so it appears above and after the matched low.
| Signal date | Signal close | Landmark | Landmark close | Timing | Price Δ | |Distance| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-02-13 | $236.56 | 2015-01-14 | $175.64 | -30 d | +34.7% | 34.7% |
| 2019-01-14 | $3,666.95 | 2018-12-15 | $3,185.07 | -30 d | +15.1% | 15.1% |
| 2022-07-18 | $22,305.71 | 2022-06-18 | $19,013.87 | -30 d | +17.3% | 17.3% |
| 2022-12-13 | $17,774.92 | 2022-11-21 | $15,778.02 | -22 d | +12.7% | 12.7% |
Why confirmation is later
Top Confirmed arrived an average of 21.3 days after its landmark and 34.7% away in price. Bottom Confirmed arrived an average of 28.0 days after its landmark and 19.9% away. These transitions answer whether a structural move has occurred; they are not intended to predict the exact extreme.
Limits of this backtest
The landmark set is small, several observations come from the same broader cycle, and the 2025 high remains provisional. The model was developed with knowledge of historical Bitcoin behaviour, so these results are not a clean out-of-sample experiment. Provider history, proxy construction and threshold choices can all affect the result.
Trading-return comparisons are intentionally outside this report. Translating signals into portfolio performance would require explicit assumptions about execution, fees, taxes, slippage, time out of market and user behaviour; a tiny trade sample would invite false precision.
This page shows that v3 can reproduce the intended historical transitions under its stated rules. The live beta must establish whether that behaviour survives future, unseen cycles.
Read how cycle models fail, inspect the methodology, or follow version changes.