Bitcoin cycle status today
The public readout separates the persistent cycle state from daily top and bottom readiness. Readiness measures proximity to model conditions; it is not a probability or a trading instruction.
Cycle state through July 11, 2026
Top Confirmed
A structural decline has confirmed the previous top sequence. This state persists until a new cycle transition occurs.
Daily evidence
The state above remembers confirmed transitions. The readings below are recalculated from the latest complete, exactly aligned daily indicator snapshot and can move independently.
Low proximity to current top conditions.
Watch proximity to current bottom conditions.
Daily context: Neutral · complete through July 10, 2026
CYCLE-V3
Every public status is tied to an explicit model version so later rule changes cannot silently rewrite its meaning.
Partial daily snapshot
Readiness is hidden whenever mandatory daily inputs are missing, delayed or observed on different dates.
Latest recorded transitions
These are causal state changes produced from closed daily observations. A confirmation is deliberately later than the extreme it confirms.
| Transition | Date |
|---|---|
| Top Confirmed | |
| Top Turn | |
| Peak Candidate | |
| Bottom Confirmed | |
| Bottom Watch |
Compare every historical signal with the corresponding market landmark →
How to use this page
Use the cycle state to understand which transition the model has already recorded. Use daily readiness only as context about changing evidence. Neither tells an individual whether to buy, sell or hold Bitcoin.
Turnmetry provides general research, not personal financial advice. Bitcoin can move sharply while any state or readiness score remains unchanged.
Read the full v3 methodology or review the data sources and proxies.