How Turnmetry watches for a Bitcoin cycle bottom
Deep drawdown alone does not establish a durable low. Model v3 combines stress, valuation, long-term trend and miner evidence, then waits for persistence and recovery.
Model referenced: cycle-v3 · July 2026
Bottom detection is a process
Capitulation conditions can persist while price continues to fall. Turnmetry therefore distinguishes a daily bottom candidate, a persistent Bottom Watch and a later Bottom Confirmed state. The low used for confirmation can move lower while the watch is active.
This approach reduces dependence on one oversold reading, but it cannot eliminate false watches or confirmation delay.
Deep drawdown
Price must be at least 60% below its previously observed all-time-high close.
MVRV at or below 1
Market value is no higher than realised value, a condition associated with broad unrealised losses.
Long-term weakness
Price must be no more than 75% of its two-year average, with either Mayer at or below 0.8 or Pi Cycle ratio at or below 0.40.
Revenue compression
The Puell-style proxy must be at or below 0.60 of its trailing 365-day baseline.
From candidate to Bottom Watch
All required evidence families must align for a daily bottom candidate. Model v3 then requires at least seven candidate days inside a rolling ten-day window before entering Bottom Watch. This persistence rule aims to filter isolated data spikes and one-day price shocks.
A same-side cooldown and re-arming rule limit repeated watches during one prolonged decline. These controls reduce alert repetition; they do not prove that the first watch contains the final low.
What confirms a bottom
While Bottom Watch is active, Turnmetry tracks the lowest daily close. Bottom Confirmed requires a rebound of at least 10% and at least 30 days since that tracked low. If a lower close occurs, both the reference price and the waiting period move forward.
A recovery rule can reject some falling knives, but the trade-off is that confirmation occurs above and after the eventual low.
Where bottom indicators can fail
A structural market change can make old thresholds less relevant. On-chain fields can be revised, the Puell-style series is a scheduled-issuance proxy, and price-derived ratios are correlated. A sharp rebound can also satisfy confirmation before a later decline begins.
See the data source notes for exact derivations, the model failure guide for broader risks, and the historical cycle record for timing, price distance and false positives.
View current cycle status