Peak Candidate
A new highest daily close in a historically late or overheated part of the cycle.
EARLY WARNING Private beta · Cycle model v3
See when the Bitcoin cycle changes character.
Turnmetry turns daily market data into clear cycle phases. Not an exact prediction, but a transparent model that deliberately separates warning, reversal, and confirmation.
Daily closes · Causal rules · Visible model versions
SIGNAL ARCHITECTURE
From early warning to confirmation
MODEL V3
01
Peak CandidatePredictive warning when the cycle shows exhaustion.
02
Top TurnFast reversal after a trend break and drawdown.
03
Top ConfirmedSlower confirmation after a structural decline.
Illustrative cycle — not the current market status.
01CausalOnly data that was available at the time.
02VerifiableRules and model versions are explicit.
03Honest about uncertaintyRisk zones, not guarantees or a crystal ball.
One model, different speeds
Identifying a top takes more than one red light.
Turnmetry separates an early candidate from an actual market reversal. You see not only that risk is changing, but also how strong the evidence is.
Top Turn
The market retreats from the candidate high and breaks the short-term trend. Fast, but by definition retrospective.
REVERSAL DETECTEDTop Confirmed
The decline is large enough to qualify as structural confirmation. Slower, with stronger evidence.
STRUCTURAL CONFIRMATIONBottom Watch
A separate set of valuation, miner, and trend data looks for capitulation and a sustainable recovery.
BOTTOM RISK
Built for trust
No black box.
No black box.
No rewritten history.
A model is only useful when you know what it does and does not say. That is why explainability is central to the beta.
✓
Daily, reproducible snapshotsStatus follows closed daily data, not the emotion of an intraday candle.
✓
Warning and confirmation stay separateA fast candidate is never presented as a proven cycle top.
✓
Visible data qualityMissing or delayed sources are shown and may block signal generation.
✓
Limitations remain visibleHistorical results are a small sample, not a promise about the future.
Private beta
Follow along as the live track record takes shape.
The beta is for people who want to follow the model critically — including uncertainty, early signals, and the moments when it gets things wrong.
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No personal financial advice.
No automated trading.
No automated trading.
Bitcoin cycle signals explained
Frequently asked questions
What the model can tell you, what it cannot, and how the signals should be interpreted.
Does Turnmetry predict the exact Bitcoin top?
No. Turnmetry estimates changing cycle risk in phases. An early warning can precede a top or prove false; confirmation arrives later by design.
How are Bitcoin bottoms detected?
The bottom model combines valuation, drawdown, miner and trend evidence to distinguish capitulation from a more sustainable recovery.
Can I receive Bitcoin cycle alerts?
Yes. Verified beta users can enable or disable email alerts separately for each available signal type.
Is this financial advice?
No. Turnmetry provides general research and model information. It does not know your finances, goals or risk tolerance.